Bob,
What puzzles me about Ende's revision is how approval and any sales at all in 2000 squares with a flat line stock price forecast.
Way I interpret it, he must believe the shelling has just started, the disappointment and doubts on the Street are now severe, and we're in for some serious downside before we can even think of recovering back to around 24 in about a year's time. But even that still doesn't square with a 24 target after approval, unless he perhaps thinks that the label that is likely to result from the now-delayed approval will be more restrictive than company hopes, perhaps limited to transformed low-grade NHL or somesuch disappointment. Or maybe a reflection of lost time versus entrenching Rituxan, and loss of some of the time-to-market lead over Zevalin. Just speculation, however - berblady gets Lehman research, I'll ask her for an update...
FWIW, I can't help but think that the Street is in general disgusted with another delay, regardless of cause or likely outcome, and likely to serve up continued pounding in the short-term. Consistent with that view, right or wrong, I sold half my position today, and intend to wait in a foxhole for awhile before attempting some bottom-fishing. I picked up those shares in the 18-19 range, just seems to me we're likely to revisit that vicinity. Of course, now that I've dumped, I'm sure the market will reward my insight by bottoming right here! But one has to go with one's gut, and I don't seem to be entirely happy unless I'm engaged in some gut-trading with part of my positions...
Gordon |
