Mrs. Curly, lola gets whatever lola wants -g-
I just put two fingers in the bulls eye and he forget to get Moe's hand in front to block the damage. I love the talk here about buying the dip -g-.
We just put in a lower high (SPX) after a big selloff into August and have made a dramatic reversal with todays selloff, got double tops in XCI and NDX.
The bull trap was not very large, i don't know how to measure the repercussions. If you want to follow a nice bull trap and the ensuing sell-off look at the weekly paralell channel on dell leading into december and the blow-out of the channel into late January.
I have read a lot of t/a's that were looking for a blow-off rally into sept, more trapped surprises.
I originally read the peak in July as wave 5 top, but have to admit i got faked out by this rally myself for a couple of days. As you may have read, many elliot wavers are looking for this top to be a degree higher than the top in April 98, which means the selloff should be greater. I will not subscribe to longer term wave counts, because they can be completely misread, but the internals, and sentiment along with that triangle on the oex are telling me that now is the time to fold 'em after almost a year of internet IPO mania somethings gotta give. People only throw money stupidly at anything like this during times of great optimism, confidence and complacency.
Nobody knows what is ahead but if you use the McCllellan Oscillator as a general measure of liquidity, money has been leaving the general market since last November, a lot of it got piled back into big caps (more liquid and "easier" to exit) and fliers - short term trading vehicles.
I think Galbraith would label the money going into big caps as the money that thinks it will be able get out at the top.
We could have a b wave triangle here like the nutz did in may and bounce off support, but not worth the risk, let the big money step in front of this downtrend and support first for a long trade.
bb |
