2000: Y2K Civilized Discussion Message Board

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Technology Stocks : 2000: Y2K Civilized Discussion

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To: John Hunt who wrote (477)	8/31/1999 8:46:00 AM
From: John Hunt	Read Replies (1) of 662

Oil and Y2K -- An Updated Report << Earlier this year in the spring, this author published some comments on Ed Yourdon's Public Discussion Forum on Y2K. The comments stemmed from numerous interviews and conversations with employees in the oil industry. This author grew up in the oil industry and has maintained contacts with other folks around the country in regards to Y2K and its potential impact on the oil industry and also the utilities. As a result of the earlier published comments, many have asked me to provide an update when warranted and others asked simply for an update at timely intervals to update the status of this industry so vital to the economic well-being of the USA. Over the last three months, I've maintained these contacts. I felt that the Labor Day period was an appropriate point to provide an update of where things stand in the Oil Industry. This report is written from the perspective of the folks who are in the trenches doing the remediation work or are watching the remediation as eyewitnesses. They've related to me what they are seeing. While this may or may not seem reliable as a source of information for some readers it may be for others. It is for those others that this report is presented. In the following presentation the reader will find that the analysis of the oil industry is broken down into three distinct segments: Oil Wells Oil Pipelines Oil Refining The report does not take into account foreign oil industry information, as this author does not have sufficient first hand information for consideration. This report does take into account only domestic U.S. oil industry operations, primarily on the continental U.S. The foreign oil situation is really a separate aspect for, which there is insufficient data to form any conclusions. However, it does not appear to this author that foreign oil supplies will be any better off than those in the U.S. and may be in far worse shape than here in the U.S. Crude Oil Production -- Wells: The Bad News: No significant advancements in preparedness seem to have been made in the oil patches of the continental U.S. Most smaller oil companies have not done significant remediation work on rigs during 1999. It seems that most companies are still holding to a policy of FOF (fix on failure). I've asked why some companies are relying on FOF and the answer comes in 4 parts. 1. Inaccessibility of some systems. Some simply cannot be easily accessed for testing. 2. Lack of replacement parts or the need to provide a special customized application. 3. General state of denial by many decision-makers in small oil firms. 4. Cash Flow problems for many small oil firms hit be the severe downturn in oil prices. >> ... cont'd at ... greenspun.com

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