Hey Richard, yes the post came from another board, but yes I do take responsibility for it.
Here are my concerns on BCRX
1. Very rapid price spike without any fundimential changes to the company. They are in the process of trying to get a druge through FDA clearance, they have been doing this for years, they are still nearly 3 years away form completion
2. Roche is awaiting approval, Final approval from FDA expected in October.
3. Glaxo has a simular compound fully approved, and going into the market RIGHT NOW
4. By reading the BCRX press release and noting that they only mention viral load and omit any clinically relevant endpoints like fever, runny nose, cough, myalgia, etc., it seems odd, since I'm sure these more relevant endpoints were measured in the PII study. Furthermore, the viral load reduction is only characterized as "statistically significant" - which is a less than confidence-inspiring characterization (I would have preferred "substantial" or "clinically relevant reduction", not just "statistically significant" - which just means a detectable effect).
5. The Phase2 was done on a susceptible virus one the compound was know to work on, this however is not like a wild virus.
6. Not really any analyst following the stock according to Zack
7. No mention of second pipeline drug for them
8. Week financials
9. Undisclosed terms with JNJ
10. Possiblity the JNJ has other NA inhibitor in is drug pipeline that will go before BCRX
11. Chance that BCRX will fail FDA approval
12. More side effects with oral form of drug
Remember the this drug is 3 years away from Marketplace |
