Amots, actually it would be safer in the high 90', if they are going to hold MU for 20 days above about $88, they'll have to overshoot. I believe that $95 is the old time high (1995? the Vinik fools them rally?), and it would be befitting to drag in the last non believer bear to print a new old time high, get a good 18 to 22 MM day (enough for the holders of the debenture to short their heart out to hedge the position), and then leave all those listening to the $150 to $250 forecasts to get stuck. In any event, we may not get the full run at once, I have a feeling that we will be returned just under the threshold, at least the first time. Reason, too many already know of the scenario, and the street must keep the scenario weapon to itself exclusively, so they will attempt to get some fooled and hanging high. I would say that this rally will go to about $78 to $83, before we get a serious pull back to the high to mid $60. The next earnings report could be an excuse to retrench. Then, when no ones believe the scenario anymore, you'll see the choir inching up their forecasts, reiterating "strong buys", and do whatever is necessary to get POS off to the races.
Zeev |
