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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 71.08+0.1%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Shafik Habal who wrote (28050)8/31/1999 11:01:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle  Read Replies (1) of 77397
 
For a a guy with some good ideas, Jubak regularly does crazy evaluations like this:

"In the recently concluded June quarter, revenue at Lucent grew by 22% from the same period a year earlier. Not too shabby. But Cisco's revenue grew by 48% in its most-recent quarter."

If we look over a 3 year time frame, Lu has been growing rev's at about 12% per year. The first q comparison for Lu was only about 10%, so I dumped it. If you look at last year, Lu's revenue growth was awful. But the market drove Lu's price up and the market was right: Lu's growth has accelerated. But Csco has averaged 3x the growth. Since it's roe is much, much higher, for the obvious reason that Lu is selling lots of low margin phone equipment, CSCO deserves a much higher multiple than Lu.

I suspect that eventually they both may pass MSFT as the most valuable companies in the world so it would be hard to go wrong.
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