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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Michael Burry who wrote (8107)9/1/1999 1:22:00 AM
From: Shane M  Read Replies (2) of 78817
 
Mike,

I'm having alot more luck with my tech stocks and special situations than in my errant efforts to pursue Buffett. (I'd probably be disgusted with investing were it not for several purchases in technology that have turned out well.) In recognition of this problem I've kept my Buffet style bets small until I am able to identify where I'm missing things. It's almost like a company with _Buffettology_ chararacteristics that is cheap enough to pass on a valuation basis has some bad momentum/bad news leaking out - but not yet fully priced into the stock. It seems best (at least in this environment) to let the thing blow up and swoop in more as a contrarian. I'm learning to be deliberate with my Buffett picks and to wait ... wait ... wait for a price. I don't know if this waiting will pay off, but it can't be much worse than buying these stocks in a downtrend.

I thought I'd missed FIC, and thought you'd nailed it at a perfect price when it started back up. Problem for me now, however, is that I'll have to have the courage to jump in at some point - which is much more difficult when a stock is heading down. Don't give up on credit scoring though. My company finds that credit is a solid rating factor for auto/home insurance, and some of the new rating plans I'm seeing come out are structuring rating tiers to give a discount for clean credit. If all of the insurers start going to this way - and if the states allow this kind of scoring for insurance - there's gonna be a lot of new potential customers outside of the banking segment.

Shane
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