Central Asia Looks To Old Master Russia
Summary:
Kyrgyzstan has asked Russia for help in fighting Islamic guerrillas
who are holding approximately 20 hostages near the Tajikistan
border. By asking for assistance, the Central Asian republic is
effectively signaling the failure to provide regional security.
Most significant of all, this is a region where the U.S. has been
actively cultivating military allies.
Analysis:
The Kyrgyz defense ministry on August 31 requested Russian military
help with fighting Islamic rebels in the south. Kyrgyz Deputy
Prime Minister Boris Silayev and Defense Minister Esen Topoyev met
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Moscow to ask for Russia's
assistance. Putin agreed to provide Kyrgyzstan with military and
technical support, but ruled out deployment of Russian troops.
Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev said August 31 that he would
consider supplying weapons and ammunition, according to ITAR-TASS
and other reports.
Kyrgyzstan has asked Russia for direct military support as well as
technical assistance. Specifically, authorities in the capital
Tashkent have asked for communications, night vision goggles and
weapons. Kyrgyz forces appear ill prepared for this struggle. Its
anti-terrorist unit has been demobilized and some reports in the
region indicate that the rebels are better equipped and better
trained.
Kyrgyzstan is a full member of the Commonwealth of Independent
States Security Council, having recently renewed its membership in
the alliance with Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Tajikistan, and
Kazakhstan. The fighting began last week after mostly Uzbek
Islamic rebels crossed the Tajik-Kyrgyz border, seizing four
villages and taking more than 20 hostages. Four hostages have been
released. The rebels' intentions are unclear, as they have not
declared their demands. About 500 to 1,000 rebels are believed to
be hiding in the mountainous region surrounding the villages.
In their efforts to deal with the crisis, officials from defense
and foreign ministries of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and
Uzbekistan met in Osh, Kyrgyzstan, on August 30. They signed a
joint declaration of intent to prevent terrorism by using the most
severe measures allowed by international law. Still, their efforts
so far seem uncoordinated. On the same day, Uzbekistan launched
bombing attacks in southern Kyrgyzstan, accidentally killing three
civilians. Kyrgyzstan responded by saying the air attack has not
been authorized and it would demand compensation from Uzbekistan.
The confusion appears to have prompted Tashkent's plea to Russia.
Over the past year, Russia has offered little military hardware to
help battle the region's border disputes. Only 130 Russian border
troops are believed to remain in Kyrgyzstan. Authorities dealt
with previous hostage incidents, in July and August, by paying
ransoms. Failures to deal with Islamic groups, primarily the
"Islamic Revival Movement of Uzbekistan," have led President Akayev
to reappoint two defense ministers in two weeks. The incident
has become a profound embarrassment to the local military.
Maj. Gen. Anarbek Shankeyev was one of the first hostages taken and
guerrillas later abducted 17 reconnaissance troops.
The U.S. military has tried hard to cultivate ties with local
militaries in an effort to displace Russia as the more influential
power. Troops of the 82nd Airborne Division have held exercises
with local forces and Special Forces have trained Central Asian
troops in an effort to build up talent for joint operations,
primarily peacekeeping. Most recently, officers from the region
journeyed to MacDill Air Force Base, Florida to practice command
and control of their forces. While local troops are considered
adequate, Central Asian units generally need better technology.
Russia is positioning itself to take advantage of the outbreak of
violence in the region. Coordination between Russia and its
eastern neighbors in the struggle against Islamic extremism was one
of the main issues on President Boris Yeltsin's agenda at the
"Shanghai Five" summit. The joint declaration from the summit said
that all the parties recognized the importance of fighting
terrorists, separatists, and religious fanatics.
Ultimately, Russia appears to be interested in reasserting
influence to develop relations with Central Asia's southeastern
neighbor, China. Three high-profile meetings last week confirmed
that the two countries are reinforcing their strategic partnership
[ stratfor.com ]. Russian
President Boris Yeltsin and his Chinese counterpart Jiang Zemin
discussed closer cooperation. China is privately concerned that
Central Asian unrest is feeding separatist rebels in Xinjiang
province. Russian military assistance to Kyrgyzstan may, in fact,
be Moscow's first serious favor to Beijing.
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