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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)

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To: MGV who wrote (14033)9/1/1999 1:50:00 AM
From: Emmo  Read Replies (1) of 27311
 
All good points sir, but your comments/opinions are rather shallow. All those problems are shared by all development stage companies. Hard to have a fat bank account if all your cash is getting burned by the R&D department. No shock in that area. I agree that the floorless was high risk and not in the best interest of the shareholders and is reflected in the stock price. But I think the deal with CC reflects Lev's desire to maintain control of this company. I'm certain money was available with out the floorless clause but it would come at the expense of Lev having to answer to those investors. Too much hassle, it was easier let the stock holders carry that bag of cement around while he worked on a PO.
The delays should not suprise anyone if they really spent some time thinking and not listening to some of that FMK BS. (FMK is posting but just using his other alias) Developing a new battery chemistry is extremly difficult. Witness how long Lead Acid and the Alkaline batteries have been around. I don't have inside sources like others have on this thread so all I can go by is what the VLNC partners are doing. Delphi is telling the public that they will have a LiPoly battery in the near future. The Koreans say they will be selling a battery before the year is over. Alliant is signing DoD contracts for LiPoly batteries. So I can't see how the "competition" has much of a lead on VLNC if a company like Delphi hasn't yet gone commercial. Also if it was just a matter of having lots of cash to throw at the project then Delphi should have had a commercial product long ago. A new battery chemistry is not much different that a new drug. There is a ton of testing that has to be done to insure product quality and safety. Hell, everyone just thinks about products like microchips. You design and build it, zap it with some electricity to test it and send it off to Dell. With a six month product cycle for products like that it's hard for the lay investor to understand why building a stupid battery would take so long. You have to understand your investment.

The stock price is in a free fall you say. I doubt it. Try looking at a stock like CAMP . Now that was a free fall. If people can't handle the stocks rather tame price action then they should be shopping CD rates. Come on, how can I really take you seriously if I bought at 5 and the stock is at 4. Even for those that bought at 11, being at 4 is like being down a few bucks at the 21 table. The dealer is showing a 4 of clubs and you're looking at an Ace. You havn't won anything but it's looking pretty good.

Now when is it time to worry? How about if Delphi announced that they were dropping the LiPoly battery? Or if Korea canceled the partnership? Now those would be serious warnings and I would be kissing my money goodby. What if Sony announced shipment of a LiPoly battery in time for the christmas season? I would not be happy, but the market is large enough for many players. You don't need a monopoly to make money in this business.

So if you want me to sweat, find some good stuff like when the CEO quit. But as it sits, VLNC's story has not changed, the technology is on track for introduction in the near future (within the year). The business partners are pressing forward and cash is available to them. The stock is not where I think it should be but the CC deal explains it's recent sick action. Oh, I almost forgot, the Irish government is giving them money as well.

If the company is failing make a case. Show numbers, news, anything. But please, don't for a second think that just because the stock is down a few points the end is near. You've got to do better then that.

Actually, what's really killing this stock is the bad karma on this *&^% thread. All the a-holes who can't say anything intelligent and love posting crap is what's really putting the brakes on this one. In fact I will bet lunch that if this thread could remain intelligent for 30 days the stock will be trading at 19.
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