"It's almost like a company with _Buffettology_ chararacteristics that is cheap enough to pass on a valuation
basis has some bad momentum/bad news leaking out - but not yet fully priced into the stock. "
Shane, my thoughts exactly. My feeling is that the market has already figured out Buffett's ways. They've been analyzed to death. And the obvious Buffett companies have been accorded to the proper valuation. It will be difficult for Buffett, indeed...But then, it is this multiple expansion in Buffett companies that got him his return to date.
Being contrarian above all else has been my number one most successful principle. The second principle is knowing when to fold on a contrarian play. The third is not being afraid of tech stocks.
That said, I bought Waste Management finally today, at 5/16 above its yearly lows. Looking heavily at the retailers (got started with Ross, but also ANF, BEBE). This time of year, it's a gut check. When to buy, when to sell in the context of looming tax sales. Thinking of buying Old Republic (ORI), an insurer with a PE of 6 and a nice balance sheet, 3+% dividend. Got any insight there, Shane? And no, not giving up on FIC. Just waiting for it to stabilize. That was some absolutely huge support it broke through, and there's really no guessing where it will find its next base. Congrats on waiting.
Mike |
