Thaci will loose support - Stratfor
0230 GMT, 990901 – Thaci Running Out of
Bargains as Deadline Approaches
www.stratfor.com
The ranking democrat on the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee, Sen. Joseph Biden has
insisted the KLA will lose all U.S. financial
support if it fails to meet the September 19
deadline established for the KLA’s full
disarmament. This position threatens the
ability of KLA leader Hacim Thaci to appease
both the U.S. and the fractious military bands
he represents. If Thaci has no more bargains
to make between the U.S. and KLA, then his
control over KLA forces will slip, as will
U.S. control over the KLA.
Hacim Thaci’s status as the KLA’s chief
negotiator with the U.S. has given the
guerrillas a semblance of order and unity over
the past three months. His capacity to
leverage the U.S. into sponsorship was
appreciated by rival KLA officers, effectively
buying Thaci his celebrity. To his credit, he
has secured U.S. and NATO support, while
giving a series of promises in return. The 60
percent "demilitarization" of the KLA was one
promise he kept. This posed no substantial
threat to the KLA as a whole since the
conservative leadership could maintain their
hold over parts of Kosovo while the lesser
ideologues could submit.
Thaci’s next feat is supposed to be a full
demilitarization of the KLA by September 19.
Unlike his prior acts, this promise will have
a substantial impact on the durability of the
organization. Recent symptoms of KLA disunity,
including escalated attacks against Serbs,
open provocation of French and Russian KFOR
troops, and more recent dissent from the
demilitarization program, do not mean a shift
in KLA policy or leadership. The KLA has
always been a fractious, disorganized band.
But Biden’s demand may be more than Thaci can
deliver and the U.S. will likely see now just
how difficult it is to deal with the KLA. KLA
commander Agim Ceku explained to U.S. envoy
Richard Holbrooke on August 30 that the KLA
would honor the deadline for demilitarization.
Ceku went on to say the KLA would become a
police organization, an administrative
organization and an Army of Kosovo. If this
happens, U.S.-KLA relations will likely
collapse. If the KLA can no longer secure U.S.
funding, then its various leaders will no
longer concede to U.S. interests. Without
weapons, the KLA loses its extortion
privileges over the U.S.
Ensuring both sides get their way is a feat
that Thaci cannot manage and we will see less
of him as a result. As the deadline for
demilitarization closes, many faces will
emerge from the KLA. Defiant members from
Vucitrn and Srbica who refused to surrender
their arms are one face, and "community
leaders" at Orahovac are another. These new
diplomats are likely to turn the tables on the
U.S. and NATO. |
