Central Asia Looks to Old Master Russia
September 1, 1999; www.stratfor.com
SUMMARY
Kyrgyzstan has asked Russia for help in fighting Islamic
guerrillas who are holding approximately 20 hostages
near the Tajikistan border. By asking for assistance, the
Central Asian republic is effectively signaling the failure
to provide regional security. Most significant of all, this is
a region where the U.S. has been actively cultivating
military allies.
ANALYSIS
The Kyrgyz defense ministry on August 31 requested
Russian military help with fighting Islamic rebels in the
south. Kyrgyz Deputy Prime Minister Boris Silayev and
Defense Minister Esen Topoyev met Russian Prime
Minister Vladimir Putin in Moscow to ask for Russia’s
assistance. Putin agreed to provide Kyrgyzstan with
military and technical support, but ruled out deployment
of Russian troops. Russian Defense Minister Igor
Sergeyev said August 31 that he would consider
supplying weapons and ammunition, according to
ITAR-TASS and other reports.
Kyrgyzstan has asked Russia for direct military support
as well as technical assistance. Specifically, authorities
in the capital Tashkent have asked for communications,
night vision goggles and weapons. Kyrgyz forces appear
ill prepared for this struggle. Its anti-terrorist unit has
been demobilized and some reports in the region
indicate that the rebels are better equipped and better
trained.
Kyrgyzstan is a full member of the Commonwealth of
Independent States Security Council, having recently
renewed its membership in the alliance with Russia,
Belarus, Armenia, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan. The
fighting began last week after mostly Uzbek Islamic
rebels crossed the Tajik-Kyrgyz border, seizing four
villages and taking more than 20 hostages. Four
hostages have been released. The rebels’ intentions are
unclear, as they have not declared their demands. About
500 to 1,000 rebels are believed to be hiding in the
mountainous region surrounding the villages.
In their efforts to deal with the crisis, officials from
defense and foreign ministries of Kyrgyzstan,
Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan met in Osh,
Kyrgyzstan, on August 30. They signed a joint
declaration of intent to prevent terrorism by using the
most severe measures allowed by international law. Still,
their efforts so far seem uncoordinated. On the same
day, Uzbekistan launched bombing attacks in southern
Kyrgyzstan, accidentally killing three civilians. Kyrgyzstan
responded by saying the air attack has not been
authorized and it would demand compensation from
Uzbekistan.
The confusion appears to have prompted Tashkent’s
plea to Russia. Over the past year, Russia has offered
little military hardware to help battle the region’s border
disputes. Only 130 Russian border troops are believed
to remain in Kyrgyzstan. Authorities dealt with previous
hostage incidents, in July and August, by paying
ransoms. Failures to deal with Islamic groups, primarily
the "Islamic Revival Movement of Uzbekistan," have led
President Akayev to reappoint two defense ministers
within the last two weeks. The incident has become a
profound embarrassment to the local military. Maj. Gen.
Anarbek Shankeyev was one of the first hostages taken
and guerrillas later abducted 17 reconnaissance troops.
The U.S. military has tried hard to cultivate ties with local
militaries in an effort to displace Russia as the more
influential power. Troops of the 82nd Airborne Division
have held exercises with local forces and Special Forces
have trained Central Asian troops in an effort to build up
talent for joint operations, primarily peacekeeping. Most
recently, officers from the region journeyed to MacDill Air
Force Base, Florida to practice command and control of
their forces. While local troops are considered adequate,
Central Asian units generally need better technology.
Russia is positioning itself to take advantage of the
outbreak of violence in the region. Coordination between
Russia and its eastern neighbors in the struggle against
Islamic extremism was one of the main issues on
President Boris Yeltsin’s agenda at the "Shanghai Five"
summit. The joint declaration from the summit said that
all the parties recognized the importance of fighting
terrorists, separatists, and religious fanatics.
Ultimately, Russia appears to be interested in
reasserting influence to develop relations with Central
Asia’s southeastern neighbor, China. Three high-profile
meetings last week confirmed that the two countries are
reinforcing their strategic partnership. Russian President
Boris Yeltsin and his Chinese counterpart Jiang Zemin
discussed closer cooperation. China is privately
concerned that Central Asian unrest is feeding separatist
rebels in Xinjiang province. Russian military assistance
to Kyrgyzstan may, in fact, be Moscow’s first serious
favor to Beijing. |
