What does Ariad have?
Great science:
A gene therapy regulation system that works.
After some tuning (rapamycin), and maybe a bit
more work on the vector by Genovo, ARGENT will
go into clinical trials in the next year or so.
There was a little confusion about the dimerizer
versus the Gene Therapy...but I think the point was
best clarified by "vanderrhoe" in Yahoo post 1167
Also, you guys must know exactly what Phase I was
testing: was it ARGENT transfection of human T cells
and inducible expression, was it tolerance of the
latest generation of the dimerizer...? (I'll clue
you in: the latter is now sitting pretty, the former is
my real question. Is transfection PII?)
So great, ARIA has ARGENT...and an able partner in
Genovo, also a smattering of interesting exclusive
and non-exclusive liceneces with the best and brightest.
However, Ariad might also have some competition--something
not often discussed are other regulation schemes out there
--GMED, now Valentis has something...what other
"Gene switches" are out there?
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Shitty financing:
Of course Ariad also seems to have a management
which is either very bold, or very stupid--as
far as financing. I suspect it is not possible
to hang around molecular biologists if one is
very stupid--you will be quickly found out and shamed,
so let's assume managment is pretty smart. We know
Ariad has had a very good BOD, there is no doubt
in my mind that because of them Ariad has signed
some good deals and has captured some good IP.
So, if management ain't dumb, then it is possible
that they've actually been very sneaky with the
finances. Yes, if looks and quacks like dilution,
sure it's dilution, and yes, it has done horrible
things to the stock price. My guess is that the
convertible shares will come online over the next
six months, and that, combined with tax loss selling
will keep the stock down around these levels--probably
around 3/4 by 7/8--there could even be further talk
of dilisting etc etc. I say 3/4ths because there has
been no attempt to support the price yet, and if 85
cents is breached this month, more toxic crap occurs.
I wish I'd been slower to accumulate my shares, but
then I thought it was in their interest to keep the
price above a buck, maybe not. Certainly not if you
want ultra cheap shares--traders and money managers
alike often have to dump positions when they drop below
a buck or the chance of delisting comes up. I too may
still be stopped out by the current slide.
So, if they're being sneaky, then this would be the
perfect environment in which to accumulate shares, and
I feel like an ass for having an average cost of 1 1/4.
However, I feel good about the chance of seeing ARIA
up around $4 eventually, and of course with no more
B.S. financing and with any clinical success, ARIA is
easy ten bagger material.
But at the least, if things go pretty well, then I'll take
$4--the Science article was able to generate enough interest
to do that briefly, I don't see why that could not happen
again. If Ariad stops doing bad financing and insiders clean
up the millions of shares puked up, then I will survive.
But I don't have to like it. There is also a chance I'm
hoping beyond hope the the stock has been manipulated
down--when I first started yapping about my consipiracy
theory, somebody might have PMed me and to say "shhhh".
But that never happened. So mostly I worry that I screwed
up in buying tons of ARIA, and I'm mostly ashamed of being
in the warrants. |
