2000: Y2K Civilized Discussion Message Board

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Technology Stocks : 2000: Y2K Civilized Discussion

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To: flatsville who wrote (493)	9/1/1999 12:53:00 PM
From: B.K.Myers	of 662

Would you care to give us odds on successful remediation of Japanese PCs within the next four months assuming Feilder's assessment is correct? Impossible to say. It depends on what they are using these PC for. If the PC's are stand-alone systems used for word processing, then this won't be a problem. If the PC's are used as a front-end process for their mainframe computers, then it depends on the both the front-end PC software and the mainframe software. It would also depend on what Y2K problems the PC software has. Of course, if the PC passes a "bad" date to the mainframe, then you probably will have some problems. If these problems turn out to be severe, then I would give them only a 25% of successful remediation in the remaining 4 months (just a guess). If the PC's are used for back-end processing (such as reporting), then only the output reports will be affected. This would not be a big problem. In fact, it probably won't even matter whether or not they are remediated by year-end. If the PC's pass date sensitive data to other external systems, then a Y2K problem in the PC's could have a "ripple" effect. This would require integrated testing and I don't believe that this could be accomplished in the remaining four months. Possible, but not probable. A lot would depend on whether they are using COTS software or in-house developed software. If Y2K compliant version of the COTS software is immediately available, then they shouldn't have too much of a problem installing and testing the new software by year-end. But if they are using in-house developed software with a Y2K problem, they could be in trouble. I suspect that we will be hearing more about this over the next couple of weeks. B.K.

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