I wonder if this will have any effect on the Nikkei this fall. Apparently the information is credible:
Tuesday August 31, 9:41 am Eastern Time
Company Press Release
Year 2000 Wire/Japan is the Biggest Y2K Risk in the World Today
World-renowned Y2K Authority Calls for West to Act Now
TOKYO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 31, 1999--Japan's lack of Y2K readiness poses a serious threat to the stability of the world economy.
This is the opinion of Karl W Feilder, President and CEO of Greenwich Mean Time and acknowledged world authority on the year 2000 PC problem.
Currently on a conference tour of Japan, Feilder is calling for more Y2K-advanced countries to act now or they will not be able to trade with Japan next year.
''Japanese business needs to be brought to a level of Y2K understanding very quickly so that they can act against the threat Y2K poses to their economy - and, therefore, the world economy. The quickest way of doing this is to transfer other government's existing Y2K campaigns to Japan.''
While the West may rightly think this is the responsibility of the Japanese government, Feilder, who has met their government representatives, says there simply isn't time to bring them to the point of understanding that breeds action.
''Most Western governments took a long time to understand what needed to be done. The UK, US, Canadian, South African and Australian governments acted very strongly when they understood that Y2K had the ability to shut their economies down if they didn't encourage business to act. Today these are the nations I rate as furthest ahead in Y2K preparation.''
Feilder acknowledges that many other nations need help too, but says the case for transferring accumulated knowledge to Japan is most urgent.
''We've recently experienced the domino effect of Japanese recession and stock market fluctuation, compounded by the interdependence of the traditional keiretsu. These groups of large companies - all with strong connections to the same bank and significant cross-holdings in each other's shares - dominate Japanese business culture. I don't think anyone would argue that it is in the interests of the West to prevent their economic failure.''
Feilder singles out the British, Canadian and American governments as being best placed to help and is very specific about what needs to be done.
''Acting independently, these governments need to take out full page print ads and run television and radio campaigns on behalf of their local companies that trade with Japan. They need to bring Japanese understanding up to speed by explaining that the problem is most serious at the desktop, explaining the five layers of the PC, and explaining what action they need to take at each layer.'' (More details attached.)
Feilder, who has been involved in actively advising many governments for several years now, has helped develop the content behind these campaigns. He first volunteered to help the Japanese government three months ago when it became apparent that they were lagging dangerously behind the rest of the world.
He cites a wide variety of existing government Y2K taskforce campaigns that could feasibly be transferred to Japan.
''In Canada, they dropped Y2K guides in 11 million homes. In the UK, Action 2000 runs a very active call center and web site, they run television, print and billboard advertising campaigns, and constantly work to keep the subject in the media. They also run a very vigorous campaign to keep small and medium enterprises in business next year and they've involved local chambers of commerce and business links.
''Australia and South Africa have both run advertising campaigns. South Africa's was particularly good - at one point President Nelson Mandela took out a full-page ad in the highest-circulating broadsheet to encourage the nation's Y2K preparations. The American Y2K community runs endless web sites and I've spoken at hundreds of American Y2K conferences over the past three years.''
He says there are lots of other ways the West can help Japan.
''Western companies can pass knowledge on to their Japanese trading partners. In addition, industries should be transferring knowledge among themselves. Most banks, certainly in the UK, have produced very professional Y2K guides for their customers in the form of booklets or videos. Their millennium compliance statements are comprehensive too. Japanese banks, which I'm particularly worried about, could learn a lot from them. Only one has checked their PCs - and even they haven't checked all of them.''
THE MESSAGES WESTERN GOVERNMENTS NEED TO GET ACROSS IN THE JAPANESE PRINT AND BROADCAST MEDIA
1. The year 2000 problem is real and will shut businesses down if not resolved.
2. It has a far higher impact on PCs and PC networks than any other type of computer.
3. Every single PC needs to be checked at all five layers: hardware (BIOS), operating system, software programs, user data and data sharing. (See ''The Problems/The Solutions'' below(a) for details.)
4. Identified problems need to be solved. (See ''The Problems/The Solutions'' below(a) for details.)
5. There is still time to solve problems - prioritize on mission critical systems.
6. It's not about the 1st of January 2000. Its impact will be felt throughout 2000 and especially in the first quarter.
(a) THE PROBLEMS/THE SOLUTIONS
What to check PCs for and how to solve problems at each of the five layers
1. HARDWARE LAYER (BIOS)
THE PROBLEM: The BIOS (basic input/output system) initializes every PC on start up and passes date and time information to the operating system and other software programs. The BIOS in each PC sets up the system date and time by reading - and automatically correcting if necessary - the time from the battery-powered clock chip in the PC.
If the BIOS date and time are wrong (and even new BIOS's can be affected), the data generated by accounting, spreadsheet, inventory, scheduling and payroll software programs can't be trusted.
THE SOLUTION: Locate and audit PCs; assess hardware status; fix BIOS's; replace those that can't be fixed.
2. OPERATING SYSTEM LAYER
THE PROBLEM: The operating system is sometimes responsible for feeding information to the other layers so it is critical that it operates correctly. The standard installation of most common operating systems (including newer operating systems) is not optimized for 2000, putting the successive layers at risk.
THE SOLUTION: Discover what operating systems are in use and where; reconfigure to operate correctly; upgrade or replace those that can't be corrected.
3. SOFTWARE PROGRAMS LAYER
THE PROBLEM: Every software program treats data a little differently. Greenwich Mean Time's independent research shows that 64% of PC software programs exhibit potential year 2000 problems in normal usage mode.
The company has also identified 73 shades of gray at this layer. For instance, software programs may be forced to guess the century when the user enters only the last two digits of the year - and each software program may guess a different century. The assumptions made by software programs are generally not obvious to the user.
THE SOLUTION: Identify what software programs are running within your organization, where they reside, and whether they are mission critical; understand what risks they pose to your business if they can't operate correctly in 2000; repair, patch, replace or upgrade.
4. USER DATA LAYER
THE PROBLEM: Data is fed into a PC where it is turned into information. If the data includes dates, a problem arises because most PCs are unable to allow dates to span a century: years are entered as two digits (YY) yet most PC programs calculate in four-digit years (CCYY).
Most programs automatically expand YY dates to CCYY dates, making a variety of century assumptions. Data is thus often turned into incorrect information but this is not apparent to the user who doesn't know what century the program has assumed.
THE SOLUTION: Discover how many files exist in your organization, where they are, how old they are, and how they're affected by the year 2000 problem; define their roles in the organization, prioritize on which need to be repaired first; repair for use in 2000.
5. DATA SHARING LAYER
THE PROBLEM: PC users constantly share data via disk, CD-ROM, e-mail, the Internet, EDI, across networks, and even when they cut and paste and drag and drop.
When data is shared between one software program - or PC - and the next, it can be modified during the transition. This is a bit like spreading a virus. In most cases it happens unknowingly and goes unnoticed. Problems that occur at all of the other layers are compounded when data is exchanged.
THE SOLUTION: Identify data sharing points; limit exposure to non-compliant data; keep existing data clean.
NOTES
Headquartered in the UK, Greenwich Mean Time currently has 15 offices around the world, in North America, Europe, Africa and Asia Pacific. Karl W Feilder, founder and president of the company, is acknowledged worldwide as the authority on the year 2000 PC problem and, vitally, it's cause: lack of control at the desktop.
Greenwich Mean Time has comprehensively researched the year 2000 problem and is the developer of the award-winning Check 2000 suite of diagnostic and corrective year 2000 PC software, and the DataPatrol suite of data correction and protection tools.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
Greenwich Mean Time
Karl W. Feilder
kwf@gmt-2000.com
******************
I exchanged email with Mr. Fielder and he states that the following comments are accurate (I had to confirm them since Gary North posted them to his site):
Feilder Reports: Until Last Week, Japanese Government Did Not Know That PC's Are Noncompliant
This is from the head of Greenwich Mean Time, producer of Check 2000. It appeared on de Jager's forum, August 29. I will not bother to comment, except to say that Feilder always tells it straight. Gary North
. . . "I have been in meetings in Tokyo for the last week, and have met some very high up people in industry and government, which has given me a lot of critical information about the risk posed to the world economy by the world's second largest economy.
Try these for a few facts on Japan :
1. The government has had a Y2K campaign running since summer 1998, and have done a lot of the right things, but until last week, no-one had told them that Y2K affected PCs at all.
2. Only one bank has even started checking their PCs
3. In meetings with some of the key PC manufacturers, it became clear that they have NOT tested the BIOS for Y2K issues (just like the US situation in 1997)
4. The Japanese head of disaster and emergency management told me that he thought Y2K was overhyped, and consequently they have not made a contingency plan (although they could modify an existing plan - e.g. earthquakes or war.)
5. The government's own figures, which will be presented in Berlin, whilst very very impressive, are so inaccurate that they verge on being pure imagination." . . .
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