<...everybody else seemed to bet around 40-90 bucks for next year's target...> Not quite Tero. I didn't put my figures in. That was because I had no idea what it would be next year.
At a retail price of $2 per minute, sales could be very slow and some refinancing could be needed and that would send Globalstar share price into the doldrums. At 50c per minute retail, sales would be very fast and success would be great even though the handsets are not beauty contest winners. At 20c per minute retail, handset prices would zoom up, Qualcomm and others would close terrestrial handset production lines to boost capacity on the Globalstar lines and Globalstar share price would go through the roof.
20c per minute would be 10c for Globalstar and 10c for Airtouch [and others]. 10c is heaps to cover the retailers who don't have to pay for any infrastructure, unlike for their terrestrial networks. Sprint pays for infrastructure AND subsidizes handsets and still only charges a dime a minute for USA calls. 10c would leave Globalstar with no profits. Once the system started to fill, Globalstar could start raising the price which would stabilize demand at manageable levels and make a huge heap of money as 'what the market will bear' prices are reached.
6m subscribers paying $1.20 a minute in 3 years but only 20c per minute for the first year is better than 600,000 subscribers paying $1.50 per minute over the first three years - with 10,000 at Xmas99 and increasing at 20-40,000 per month.
I'm not quite sure of the terms of your reindeer lunch bet. You mean the price in a year will be less than $30? Is that what the bet means?
All this worry about doing everything just right, such as billing, enquiry handling, customer service and stuff is good, but is starting to look like an excuse for a lethargic rollout.
I'm going to Geneva and I want to be able to buy a Globalstar phone at the launch and turn it on! Then I'm going to Beijing and I expect to be able to use it. It should also work in Japan, Taiwan and Australia though a clear horizon would be needed in Japan and Taiwan to reach the Beijing gateway. Hang on, there's a Korean one! So Japan should be fine. Even NZ should just about be reached by Dubbo's gateway [with a low horizon].
The Geneva show is 4 weeks from now, so they should have it all organized you'd think. I better go log onto their Web sites and see what's on offer. I'm tossing up whether to buy the Qualcomm, Telital or Ericy model. I hear that Bernie won his dinner bet and everything is ready to go, so I should enjoy my shopping expedition.
If I get the Qualcomm phone, I won't be able to use it in terrestrial mode in Europe, China or New Zealand, but will be able to use it in Tokyo, Brisbane [cdmaOne mode] and New Zealand [NZ in a year or so - on Telecom's new cdmaOne system]. If I get the Telital, I'll be able to use it in Europe and China, Brisbane and NZ, but not Japan. I thought the Ericy phone is still in the design phase, but maybe they'll be ready because if Bernie says the system is ready, I guess that means handsets are too and Europeans will want the GSM/Globalstar models.
Anyone know the roaming charges? How much will a handset bought in Geneva cost to use in GSM mode in Europe? How about if it's used in Globalstar mode in China, Japan, Taipei [can't use it in NZ because no gateway seems likely for years]? I better check the pricing plans which I suppose are in globalstar.com where I haven't checked for a little while.
Maurice |
