So, is Stratfor's perspective of an Asian uptick being temporary in sync with others views?
It's in sync with mine...
The more I read about Japan, as well as other Asian nation's, unpreparedness for Y2K related disruptions, the more I believe that this is merely the eye of the storm passing over.
I may be wrong, but I won't even consider buying emerging market funds or WEBS in any international market until next year. I can handle the opportunity cost more than the downside risk.
Message 11134741
Message 11135224
I think the currency markets in Japan are being set up for a major fall... They may be unwinding some of these carry trades on the yen/dollar, but I think the majority were unwound last year after LTCM's collapse.
The point being... most of the money going into the Japanese markets is quite likely money that is coming in from the US. When US investors finally start to realize the risk they are running buying the Nikkei, they will come pouring back into US T-bills.
Btw, I don't think it will be pretty for the US markets either. But we are supposedly better prepared than most of the rest of the world.
Btw, I am disgusted with Stratfor's refusal to incorporate Y2K in any of their economic models. I've had a few email exchanges with one of their analysts, and while not "poo-poohing" the issue, he basically said their was no way to quantify the risk... (which is BS)
Regards,
Ron
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