Might look good on paper. Would like to know how they made that chart of '29 , as the rally only went from 1919- 1929 & how it could it economically be compared to current time.
A couple of facts..., mild deflation (via farm prices) from 1917-1929 propelled the market. This was in a climate of RISING interest rates, peaking in Oct. 1929 at overnight broker call rates of 17-19 % , if they could find the money and it could not be found, ... anywhere!!. After several liquidity bailouts, the famous "Babson break occurred" , ... and that was the start of falling interest rates,. in a massive deflation/depression to interest rates of 1/4 of 1% in 1932.
Interest rates were inverted in 1929, they are not today. If they were, we all should be trading gold futures.
Today we have seen a mild deflation since '82 that has propelled the market to current levels with mildly rising interest rates.
Sorry to burst ya-all bubbles, ... this thing looks real good to trade for the next approx 4 years, ... both up & down.
My economic model would be current time approx 1924, as interest rates are still low & the rally is still intact.
Tomorrow , basis es99u & sp99u , looking for a continuation of current upswing, that's upswing, not uptrend. |
