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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Rick who wrote (5817)9/2/1999 12:50:00 AM
From: StockHawk  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
Fred, good point. It would not be too hard to believe that
a company like QCOM would not want analyst estimates to
get too high. It is said that Microsoft talks analysts
down, so that they can be assured of surprising on the
upside. Its just prudent management.

Considering the amazing run QCOM has had recently, a
pullback of $22, although unpleasant, isn't all that bad.
As Mike Buckley just posted CSCO has dropped 40% at
times. We have to expect that tech stocks are going to
race up and then correct from time to time.

Reviewing the chart for QCOM shows that since the stock
broke above its 50 day moving average on the first trading
day of this year, it has never traded below that average -
but is has corrected almost down to it on several days.
Note the intraday lows and the corresponding 50 day average:

Date Low 50 Day

5/26 86.06 83.63
6/2 90.63 88.01
6/15 101.19 97.23
8/5 135.88 132.79

Someone who uses technical analysis might say that the 50
day average has provided support for the stock. The stock
closed today at 168.50 while the 50 day average is 156.03.
So we are still a bit above it.

I do find a point of concern with regards to the volume
pattern. QCOM has an average daily volume of about 4
million shares. Over the past 90 days the stock has
generally traded down on days having the highest volume.
There have been 4 days during this period when the volume
has exceeded 8 million:

Date Vol. Up/Dn

7/20 9.7 + 4 1/4
7/21 12.6 - 6 5/16
8/3 9.0 - 12 1/2
9/1 19.2 - 22 1/2

It would be more comforting if the selling had less volume.

StockHawk
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