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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 75.19-0.1%Jan 16 3:59 PM EST

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To: elmatador who wrote (28079)9/2/1999 8:42:00 AM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) of 77400
 
This is what is going to be one of the stone in the way to a next next generation networks.

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (5091)
From: Frank A. Coluccio
Thursday, Sep 2 1999 7:59AM ET
Reply # of 5093

Ken, while I would agree with many of his observations for the reasons he has cited (as they relate to normal ILEC and certain CLEC venues), he
ignores many of the other break-away uses of the technology. Lutkowitz takes a view that is almost entirely LEC-centric. Also, discussing this issue
requires a certain amount of qualification wrt types of settings discussed. His coverage of the topic, in that respect, was far too general.

I think that he could have given more spotlight to private enterprise adoption, and to "other utility" and the municipality sectors' needs, where
dumbed-down and more efficient boxes are now becoming available (like Adva's, for example), and where dark fiber is starting to emerge as a viable
option, especially for large users.

He also ignores the OEM and large vendor integration pacts, such as Cisco's, ComDisco's and others who are pushing some otherwise exotic
protocols like Fiber Channel and GbE over greater distances to increase the reach of storage area networks (SANs) and D/R capabilities, using native
(non-sonetized) protocols.

Another main inhibitor to WDM's uptake where running newer protocols is concerned - in places where all other things are equal - is the
embeddedness of legacy enterprise main frame applications and organizational hierarchies which depend on channel extension technologies supported
by man-millennia of programming code. But even this last observations is somewhat mitigated, because it is now possible to run ESCON over lambda
as easily as it is OC-48s and Fast /GbE Ethernet. Perhaps even easier. The gotcha here, however, is the organizational empire that is in charge of the
channel extension investment using traditional T1s and T3s (and in some cases, the overnight mail deliveries).

Dislodging these vestiges is not going to be a simple matter in many cases, since their dependencies are rooted in overall process and work flows. In
many cases we're talking about politics and long standing fiefdoms built around certain technologies that simply wont go away (in many cases can't go
away painlessly) without major disruptions.

Many of those organizations who are fortunate enough to be in locales (almost exclusively large urban areas at this time) where dark fiber is becoming
available will be able to recognize the advantages of seizing this as an opportunity instead of viewing it as a threat, may stand to benefit handsomely over
time by taking the plunge.

A larger number of others who are faced with the choice, however, for whatever reasons, will not be so quick to adopt.

Regards, Frank Coluccio
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