Hi James, Welcome back...
The lastest TA does show the obvious -- a basing, at least for now.
Looking at a short-term (since 1/6/97) linear regression channel shows that in order to call an upward breakout a <real> breakout, AXC will have to close above 6-1/2. The real top of the channel now is about 6-3/8, but, with the recent volatility, which has subsided some in the last three sessions or so, a close of 6-1/2, especially on some volume, could be something to raise an eyebrow at. At that time, TA should try to ascertain whether the run is for real or just another short-term pop like we've had. Of course, all of this being w/o any news, which, at this pace, may be long in coming.
Another pseudo-indicator is the Bollinger band. This band is defined by one standard deviation above and below the 20-day moving average of AXC's stock price. Presently, the top of the Bollinger band is about 6-7/8 in price. This is the point at which AXC could revert to a decline if the run is really short-lived and peters out.
Of course, the TA shows that supply and demand have, at least for now, equalized. It looks like the support level of 5-3/4 to 5-7/8 a week and a half ago, is still holding. Let's hope it continues.
One final note... Although we're basing, there's not a lot I see to get even remotely excited about yet. Some indicators are starting to trend mildly positive, but, that could change. I've just taken some consolation in the fact that we're not going down <every> day and that we have suffered through the downturn in the major indexes.
Let's hope that the carnage in AXC is over -- even if we base for a while!!! The longer the base (I seem to have read somewhere), the more significant the upturn when it really comes.
Best regards,
Ron |
