Unc:
1. Does Intel's stance on accommodating competing high speed dram technologies signal an unfavorable shift in fundamentals for rmbs?
2. Based on today's prices and market scenario, would you expect a better return from rmbs or one of the Gorillas (Q, Mr. Softee, Cisco) over the next 12 months?
boy, great questions. Here are the answers....
1. I think the worst case scenario is that the Rambus ramp up is slower than was hoped for. The best case is that it ramps up pretty quickly. I think the fundamentals are unchanged, but I sure as hell don't know with certainty.
2. This is the question that has haunted me. I think anticipating where the better return will come from is really tough to answer. Shifting money out of Rambus into Q for 6 months, then back into Rambus for a hypergrowth phase, is akin to market timing, plus tax consequences and commissions. You and Lindy are right about not being stubborn, but at this point, my money on Rambus is based on my views of the fundamentals. However, I freely admit I could be wrong.
Whatever the market, I am presently 50% Q, 15% Intc, 15% Lu, 15% Rambus, the remainder EMC, Gemstar, EXDS. The first 80% seems pretty reliable and safe. Rambus is the potential home run. So, I'll keep looking ahead for changes in fundamentals, and will shoot for the fences with Rambus. BTW, I expect Rambus to surprise and beat analysts' estimates in Oct, and again in Jan.
I'm open to advice, and very aware I don't have all the answers,
Thanx, Stan |
