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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (24500)	9/2/1999 6:39:00 PM
From: John T.	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Haim, last night you said that implied volatility on options is low and I responded by pointing out that on an historical basis implied volatility is above average. I now believe that I misunderstood what you were saying. I think you were saying that under the present circumstances (interest rate fears, falling dollar, possible asset bubble, etc.) implied volatility is low. I don't think that you meant that today's implied volatility is low on a historical basis. I didn't realize what you were saying until after I read this excerpt from an article: The dramatic rise in volatility today may be coming from some deja vu seasonal panic of September-October months, plus an unsettling calm in the past few weeks, leading traders to believe that implied volatility in the market was far too low. Full story at: thestreet.com So to sum it up, I think you were saying that regardless of whether implied volatility is high or low on an historical basis, at this time, under the present circumstances, implied volatility is low. Haim, if I still have it wrong, please let me know. Thanks.

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