[Institutional following]
Walt --
You know I've asked the same question many times. Every time I attend a show or conference, I'm baffled by the apparent indifference. I've come to believe analysts really want $$$$$. Until they see contracts, they're not going to put their necks on the line. A few are more venturesome: Dakin, most notably, and Dain Bosworth, and SoundView, though we've not heard a peep out of the last. I know the big houses talk to Amati frequently. "They're in here every day," I've been told. I've heard RC say the same things Ross Roberts said in his post about chips and deployment. It's no surprise. That's been the story all along and I think the analysts just want to wait till they see the signatures on the dotted line below the dollar signs.
I also agree with Louie when he says the story will be decided far before the 1998 deployments. I've heard GTE will be announcing their plans in May. Their big hang-up is FCC regulations. Not just access fees, but how certain services will be identified and what categories they'll be in and how different regulations affect each. Don't ask me to explain any further, just know it's a problem and that answers are there but we're dealing with the government. Perhaps someone from the telecom industry could put it more concisely.
Then, of course, there *is* the access fee issue. If anyone knows when that'll be decided, let us know.
We're watching a drama in multiple parts being played out on a series of stages. Government and RBOCs, RBOCs and vendors, vendors and other vendors, vendors and financial institutions, analysts, telcos, telecommunications giants. While the RBOCs and ISPs are dealing with the FCC, vendors are negotiating, merging, signing contracts, breaking contracts, renegotiating contracts, entering trials, completing trials, sending systems, adjusting systems, sending more systems, designing manufacturing space, adding personnel, designing new equipment, testing new equipment, re-designing equipment, attending standards meetings, negotiating issues, attending more meetings, and God knows what else.
As long as I know the wheels are turning and the story hasn't changed, I can wait for the publicity and coverage. But then, you knew I'd say that. And truth be told, I haven't always been patient. When we were left out of the TI chip announcement, I spoke out. There have been other times, most recently the MCI almost-fiasco. And, believe me, there's hardly a day goes by I don't ask about the promised partnership announcements. RC tells me I don't have to lose any sleep and JS says before InterOp.
So, where are the analysts? They're there, waiting for the ink to dry.
Just my take. And I'm long.
Pat |
