re: "everyone probably has 10 stories like that". Well my opinion is yes, and they should have such stories. Especially if people want to buy low and sell high and have a diversified portfolio of investments. If we get away from the bemoaning, and the woulda/shoulda's then my opinion is that the only people for whom it might be okay to not take profits as this stock has moved up are people who are very, very focused. People like Paul K. who study the industry and each company and stock in very, very detailed ways. Or people who are very, very knowledgeable insiders in the business (like perhaps some who post on ecm thread or here). In my opinion it is just not prudent for others not to take some profits. (So okay, -g-, it does seem better to be getting rich than to being prudent.)
We've seen a lot of very good news from FLEX. But at 30x Mar. 2001 earnings (per Yahoo), this stock is subject to a big hit if there are any unpleasant surprises. According to the annual report,(p.4) "certain of the Company's competitors have substantially greater manufacturing, financial, r and d and marketing resources than the company... And as competitors increase the scale of their operations, they ... may more effectively meet the needs of large OEMs".
Other factors too. Like just a general market decline. Like some nasty surprises in one of the foreign countries they operate in. Or perhaps a change in investor perception about electronics manufacturing.
I'm not saying sell out, or even sell any now, but I am arguing and have been arguing for taking profits along the way. JMO, wrong as it apparently is -g-.
Paul Senior (long FLEX) |
