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To: Neocon who wrote (14295)9/3/1999 12:10:00 PM
From: GUSTAVE JAEGER  Read Replies (1) of 17770
 
Are you kidding??? Economics has NO predictive power at all!! Although it has a pretty good a posteriori foolproofness.... Wall Street's quants don't fare better than meteorologists --actually, they're no match. At least, Florida's weather forecasting scientists do warn easterners about an oncoming hurricane --did your broker tell you about that stockmarket crash the day before??
Eventually, financial models are much closer to seismology: the supercomputers continuously purring inside Wall Street's largest houses are likely able to detect a major crash a jiffy before it actually occurs....

As regards macroeconomics, well... I guess I don't need to draw you a picture: if there was any predictive power concealed in it, then the Asian meltdown would have been avoided, Soros would be a perpetual shoo-in, and political parties around the world would no longer differ in their economical agendas --since a few hard-and-fast economic equations would set the proper policy to follow by every government....
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