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The next which will go to the drain will be AOL !! Just look at the stock performance of late comparing with all the other internet stocks, you will know, and the investors are in the knowing. Microsoft is paving the ways for its internet business, mainly enhancing its contents of MSN, the managing team, acquisition...etc, once things are ready, Microsoft will push the trigger, and that is the time AOL starts its dying path. Thinking of AOL's current more than 18 MM subscribers, say each subscriber pays $20 for the fee, it will be a net revenue of $360 MM per month, once Microsoft announce a free subscription policy with similar contents, AOL will lose its monthly revenue of $360 MM from subscription fee, this will announce the death penalty of AOL thinking about AOL cash reserve position, and How long it can stay in business without down sizing. If AOL wants to stay in operation, it will generate a big debt month after month. It is AOL which started the recent war, the "Stupid" policy of "free" PCs for subscription, and it is AOL which will take the poison of "Free " business MODEL first. I call the business model of "free" a mutual destructive business model. |
