Sunday Morning in the Gorilla park with LindyBill
I have been walking though the mist in our Gorilla park this morning, observing our Greyback's and youngster's at play, and ruminating on their prospects:
INTC: I pronounced this company dead in February, it has gone from 66 to 89 since then. Pretty good for a dead guy! Up almost 48% for the year. The trailing PE of 45 looks low by today's standards, ( I bought it in '95 at 14!!), but seems to be the best PE that the street will give it. I am reading "Inside Intel" right now, and suggest you all get it. Even if you don't want to be in Intel, the history of the Industry in the book is fascinating.
CSCO: Up 49% for the year, with a trailing PE of 103!!. That PE is "pushing the edge of the envelope", folks.
MSFT: Up 36% this year, with a trailing PE of 69!! When the DOJ is settled, this could be the play of the year. By our standards, way undervalued.
QCOM: Up 489% this year, with a trailing PE of 143. When we were discussing this company in March and April, I said it would be very volatile, foreign news, such as China, would drastically affect it, and the execution would have to be flawless. It's all happening! Short term, the analyst's conference on Sep 15th will be interesting. Long term, the prospects are still outstanding. I am still 100 % in this company.
Conclusion:
I would have a tough time buying CSCO or INTC at these PE's.
MSFT could be one hell of a buy. Some type of option play or purchase of MSFT timed to the DOJ is certainly possible. A lot of people on this board will make a lot of money on MSFT this year, IMO.
What will I do? Stay the course with QCOM
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