A request to the thread:
We seem to have a number of core topics here. Lots of day to day discussion on short term tactical moves on individual stocks trying to beat the "herd"'s responses to various daily news reports. Either analysts upgrade/downgrades, earnings or reports of new well developments, fires political discord, boom/bust market reactions to fear/greed on individual stocks, etc. Then we have discussions involving long term strategic moves, as in the anticipation of "Boom 2000" (tm, DD Industries)(De' Dawg...lol) or fundamental shifts in supply (opec maneuvers, depletion) or demand (increased SUV's, NG use for electricity generation, and long term weather patterns)
Lots of intelligent talk talk here about DD, not as much info as I would like regarding fundamental oil stock analysis. Ok, so we may know "generally we have a company w/ highly levereged debt, or with b.s. assets on the book. For example, there was a very negative MEXP poster over on the Yahoo thread doing a major talk-down on the stock. He was saying that a lot of the larger companies buy "loser" wells with "life" of 12 to 13 years so they can pump up the look of their books, and that he made money buying and selling them. Frankly, I didn't understand what he was saying, but it was quite convincing.
(O/T to Slider: By the way, Slider, no offense to your celebrity here, but I think that guy was MUCH more convincing with his repeated negative remarks about dumping MEXP, and perhaps contributed to the sell-off much more than you. As the most vocal postitive hypster, admitting you held no MEXP I think made you the biggest target as some felt they had been "had")
So, a general challenge to the thread. Could those of you a bit more skilled in reading a balance sheet talk a bit more of financials, or recommend a "good read"? For example, when one says "stock ABC should trade in a range between $3 to $5", where is this coming from? I know there are multiples based on projected sales, and core value based on reserves, but are there some more precise formulas?
Perhaps I have been simply a lucky fool, as I have more than doubled my risk capital in the oil/NG arena since 3/1. But I have simply played the day to day zig-zags on these stocks, buying fear and selling greed. Average hold 30 days, with an occasional day-trade when some poor soul buys or sells from/to me at my GTC bottom-fishing prices on a market instead of a limit order. But, how do you know when a stock has "run to far-too-fast in either direction, unless you understand the appropriate trading range based on fundamentals?
Ultimately when the smoke clears, the market moves ultimately based on fundamentals of supply, demand, perceptions of this in the future, and the supply of money from investors looking for the highest return.
Can we have a bit of a discussion on these fundamentals and what individuals are doing when they "do" there "DD"?
Perhaps this would be of interest to many on the thread. (Or perhaps I am a rank amateur and need to go to the library!!!!)
Personal techniques, thoughts, ideas, all?
Regards,
CPS |
