However, noone disputes that long-haul DWDM is here to stay and very much in demand. I have had CIEN and FIBR (Osicom) and have lost money in both. On the other hand, SDLI has been a great stock. JDSU has performed extremely well too, and should continue to do so for at least several more years , although I have never had any. I do think that in the Metro market, FIBR is the leader, almost by default, as despite the publicity on their web site, I don't really think that CIEN is all that committed to Metro. FIBR is such a risky proposition that I would only be willing to wait for an announcement of a major sale, buy on the news, and sell when it cools off which I did on their recent sale to Southern California Edison. I could be wrong, but if you read between the lines, CSCO's strategy may be to develop products based on Lumenon's photonic chips, Cerent's high-speed SONET transport, Monterey's cross connects, and (fill in the missing pieces here !) - and dominate optical networking including both long haul and metro a few years out. Cerent's web site seems to be closed BTW ! Cerent and therefore Cisco, are committed to SONET so it will be around for the forseeable future. Let's see now, where did I put that link...
eetimes.com
If only we could read Cisco's "shopping list" ! |
