>>The banks will force financial discipline on DRAM makers. That will act as tight rope on irresponsible Korean electronic companies<<
oh yes... spending $1 billion on a fab at the exact top of the cycle and then failing to depreciate it for nearly 5 years is responsible. it was responsible for mu to flood the market with dram at a time when korean mfrs were holding back inventory to elevate prices to profitable levels, wasn't it?
it is just the koreans who are irresponsible, right?
>>The banks will force financial discipline on DRAM makers.<<
the korean banks wgo are, for all intents and purposes, owned by the korean mfrs, will force discipline on them? not if they want to get paid. dram is a strategic NATIONAL interest for korea. they WILL stay in the game. btw, that $1.5 billion worth of debt that saddles mu puts a huge damper on any delusions of free cash flow - even if shangrila pricing returns for a year or two.
>>In my opinion, days of $ 500 PC are numbered.<<
two points. e-machines, from my understanding is profitable. why would it all of a sudden go away? in addition, e-machines went from nowhere to 3rd in us market share in about 2 years. yeah, their product isn't popular ;-)
keep in mind that computer indistry revs have been essentially flat for about 2 years - even though demand in units is growing about 20%. why? prices are falling nearly nearly 20%.
if pc prices increase then you will see computer revs decrease as unit sales drop.
it is called a demand curve. econ 101 explains it quite well. i recommend the class.
>>My guess is 64 MB DRAM should be between $ 14-16 by Christmas.<<
bewteen now and xmas, demand will decrease for drams (no back to school and no xmas) and supplies will increase (process improvements) over current levels. lower demand plus increased supply = 40% higher prices. a brand new law of economics! do i smell nobel prize here? ;-)
>>But that is my biased view. Make your own judgement.<<
thanks for the disclaimer. it sure isn't an economically sound view. as for the latter, no need to worry about that. |
