Dan,
That's 375,000 Rimms. And that's at close to full capacity for their .18 lines. If the rest of the Industry takes that to 750,000 you're set up for an annual rate of 9 million 128 meg RIMMS. Windows 2000 is calling for 256 meg as the preferred minimum (just right for the 256mbit SDRAMs coming into the market) so expect a significant number (25%?) of the high end PCs (the only candidates for expensive rambus) to require this much RAM. This works out to about 6 or 7% of the market next year -
There are so many errors and bad assumptions in your math that it would be laughable if I wasn't actually worried that someone might take you seriously.
First, Samsung is producing 3M of each of the 128Mb and 144Mb chips, so it's 6M chips total or 750,000 RIMMS per month just for Samsung. Or 9M total RIMMS for the year, just for Samsung. (If this was the only mistake you made, we'd already be up to 12%-14% market share due to this math error).
Next, you assume absolutely no growth in production throughout the year. Since you guys were the ones who said that demand would outstrip supply (giving Rambus a black eye), since the .18 micron process will really start to kick in next year, since Rambus is working with the manufacturers to get the production costs down, and since Samsung is doubling their production from Q4 to Q1, we'll make a conservative estimate that they double again during the rest of the year (from Q1 to Q4). That means that the production rate exiting the year is 18M RIMMS per year just for Samsung. But since they ramped up throughout the year, the average monthly production for the year is halfway between, or 13.5M RIMMs for Samsung for 2000.
Next, you assume that Samsung will be 50% of the market (by virtue of doubling your 9M number for the total market). Please post your market figures for Samsung that justify that decision. Here's a clip from EBN, 4/26/99, titled Hyundai, LG Semicon get 'Big Deal' done:
"The deal will catapult Hyundai's semiconductor business into a leading position in the DRAM industry, Kim said. When completed, the combined entity will account for 20.8% of the worldwide DRAM market, he added, citing estimates from International Data Corp., Framingham, Mass. That market share exceeds Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.'s 20.1%, based on IDC's valuation, he added."
So Samsung has 20% of the DRAM market. Since Samsung has been aggressive in moving to RDRAM, we'll give them a 33% share of next years market instead of just their normal 20%. Now we're up 13.5M x 3 = 40.5M 128MB RIMMs production for the year for all manufacturers.
I'll get to the rest of your "arguments" in a second, but we have enough info to stop here. The "average" PC next year will have 128M in it. With approximately 120M PCs to be sold next year, Rambus can satisfy 33% of the memory market in new PCs in 2000 (= 120/40.5), not 6% to 7% as you stated.
Let me repeat that: Rambus can satisfy 33% of the memory market in new PCs in 2000 (= 120/40.5), not 6% to 7% as you stated. That's based on correcting the calculations you initiated.
Now let's continue examining the rest of the misstatements you posted:
You said that Windows 2000 is calling for 256M as the preferred minimum. Here's the link to the Windows 2000 page on the Microsoft site that details requirements if you want to buy a PC now that can run W2000 when it comes out:
microsoft.com
What you get with Windows 2000 READY PCs
All Windows 2000 READY PCs meet the following requirements*:
- Pre-installation of Windows NT Workstation 4.0 and Service Pack 3 (or later).
- Performance: Desktops come with at least a 300 MHz Pentium©-class processor with 128-KB L2 cache or equivalent performance and 64MB of RAM; laptops include at least a 233 MHz Pentium-class processor with 128-KB L2 cache or equivalent performance and 64MB of RAM.
- PCs that have met the Designed for Windows logo guidelines
--for Windows NT Workstation 4.0 (PC98 or higher).
- BIOS support for Advanced Configuration and Power Interface (ACPI)--the latest industry standard for power management for desktops and laptops.
* Note: The system requirements listed above are recommended and exceed the minimum requirements to run Windows 2000 Professional. The minimum system requirements will be determined at the time of product release.
Note the last line that I boldfaced for you: "The system requirements listed above are recommended and exceed the minimum requirements to run Windows 2000 Professional." So 64M is what is recommended, and the minimum may be less, according to Microsoft. Not 256M, not 128M, but 64M for the recommended, which may exceed the minimum.
Next, back up to your calculation of the 6% to 7% share numbers you quoted. In an easy glide, you switch from the Rambus share of the memory market to the share of PCs that have Rambus inside of the PC market. You're talking about apples, then suddenly you switch to oranges without pointing that out. Since the higher end PCs do include more memory than lower-end PCs, saying that Rambus has 6% to 7% of the PC market in the high-end is equivalent to saying it will have something like 10% to 15% of the memory market. But you tried to gloss that over.
Do I think RDRAM will have 33% of the new systems market next year. No, because a little of the RDRAM production will go in to the channel for upgrades (not much since I believe that few PCs are upgraded through the channel the first year -- customers either have the vendor put more memory in when they order the system, or they upgrade after several years when the software has once again caught up). So maybe it will have 25% based on these numbers.
You could have checked all the same links I did, Dan, and found all the same details. Instead, you made up a bunch of BS and posted it as if you knew what the hell you were talking about. Is this the level of detail and accuracy you provide in your day job? This is why it's called FUD, and this is why we stop paying attention to your posts after a while. You just make up random stuff and present it as fact with no backup, and don't check your math for simple errors. Very simple things to do.
Dave |
