SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Tom Trader who wrote (6757)4/3/1997 11:00:00 AM
From: Snowshoe   of 58727
 
>>So I doubt that we are in a 1987 environment right now--but who knows.<<

Hello Tom,

Today's Briefing.Com has a lengthy piece in its "Stock Brief" section on this subject. Here are a few excerpts:

"The parallels between the two cycles did not become apparent until 1995. The strong growth in 1994 followed by the significant slowdown in 1995 recalled the 1985-86 period, when growth slowed from a boom to a crawl, but recession was averted. The parallels became much stronger as 1996 saw a strong rebound from the slow growth pace of 1995, just as 1987 witnessed a strong rebound after 1986."

"The risk in the current environment is that the market underestimates the magnitude of tightening necessary to slow the economy to a sustainable pace. A real rate of at least 4.0% (or 6.50% in nominal terms) would appear to be necessary to produce a significant slowdown. If this more pessimistic view of the interest rate picture proves accurate, the DJIA is unlikely to stop its slide at 6200. In light of current valuations, this more bearish rate scenario would almost certainly lead to an intermediate-term test of the 6000-5900 range."

It will be interesting to see what happens with tomorrow's economic reports. If they are strong, and the market tanks again tomorrow, then I fear we will have a really bad day next Monday.

Regards,
-Greg
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News