Re: you assumed that other vendors would be coming aboard...
That's right, if samsung were to max out at 3 million die a month, it would work out to half the 750K RIMMs I am expecting. If they do indeed double that number, then there will be considerably more rambus available. I've said before that I missed that doubled amount that Samsung is planning.
...Why are you certain that market share for rambus will mirror market share for SDRAM? Samsung is the only one close to mass production right now, though it looks like Micron will be coming along soon. For some time, Samsung will have a larger share of the rambus market than it does in the overall memory market. You become acusatory at the suggestion that market share might change - unless one is speaking of an increase in the share of rambus, of course.
...On the memory requirements for W2k - if you think that more than 5% of the systems that ship with W2k will have less than 128 meg of RAM, well, I don't know what to say except that you are perfect as a rambus long. The vast majority of NT systems ship with 128 to 256 - installed memory will average higher for W2k. Cheap notebooks may initially ship with less - just as many win 95 and 98 notebooks once shipped with 8 or 16 meg of RAM, but those manufacturers will be angering their customers.
>>if the "average" PC has 128M...
Not the average PC, the high end PCs that are potential candidates for rambus. Neither moderately priced PCs nor large servers will be using rambus next year, particularly given your logic that all machines are shipped with the minimum memory suggested by Microsoft.
Dave, with rambus expected to ship as nothing smaller than 128 meg per rimm next year, my statement that 128 to 256 will be standard supports rambus. According to your logic, no one would buy rambus because they'll want no more than the "Microsoft Recommended" 64 or fewer meg!
I won't call your statements "frightening", but they don't seem to be particularly consistent, either.
Dan |
