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Non-Tech : Knight/Trimark Group, Inc.
KCG 20.000.0%Aug 17 5:00 PM EST
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To: puborectalis who wrote (3807)9/7/1999 2:28:00 AM
From: Herschel Rubin  Read Replies (1) of 10027
 
Stephen,

Interesting re-post from Yahoo regarding September's past performance.

An article I read (and saved) last year cites the DOW's performance gain/loss by month for the years of record from 1915-1998.

Interestingly, there are only two months showing a negative performance: September (-0.74%) & October (-0.17%). So, contrary to what you hear on most message boards, October is NOT the worst month statistically -- September is! It just so happens that we've had two years of horrendous Octobers that people are unjustly leery of that month.

Continuing with the stats, as you would expect, November and December pick up steam with (+0.54% and +1.36% respectively).

However, I'm with you on this: This September WILL be different. My guess is that we may have ALREADY had our traditional "September decline" a month or two early in July/August.

There are several possible reasons:

1. Other Septembers didn't have a Y2K threat looming over them. Y2K fears may have caused some players to go to cash or rotate into safer sectors early, perhaps in July/August right after they squeezed all they could from the June quarter earnings runups.

2. Players who were burnt the past TWO September/Octobers have begun to believe that phenomenon is a trend, so they've taken precautionary positions as well.

3. Normally, July & August are strong months (+1.62% and +1.09% average DOW gains, respectively). Because we already have had substantial declines in those months going into THIS September, the market may be poised for a rebound.

We'll see...
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