JP--
a few thoughts, RE: your post on those who are bearish being wrong. i wouldnt count the bears and naysayers out just yet. while it is true that in certain areas, say publishing for example, there are tremendous profits to be made, most retailers are going to have a very difficult time of it and will survive only by becoming specialty stores that offer exclusive lines of merchandise.
think about what happens to AMZN or B&N if ingram or another large distributor decides to get into the business themselves.
the biggest problem i have with the everything is rosy-this is the new economy scenario is that it forgets the fits and panics that occured during american industrialization. during the last half of the 19th century, we had one depression after another... and the hot securities of that time... the railroad bonds... ended up with little or no value.
you should never forget that while it can be very good, it can also be very bad. granted, LT we appear to be in an entropic state (i.e., things always get better). however, the potential for some very violent displacements is very possible. for example, and one everyone automatically discounts, we still have too many nukes on this planet. while i am not really terrified of the prospect of being in a fireball one afternoon<G>, i am very concerned about the real and devastating effect a high yeild weapon in LEO would have on the electronic infrastructure of this country. true, our machines and devices have helped us in myriad ways. however, they are also a very real achilles heel due to their fragility.
as a side note... originally the internet was designed to withstand a nuclear war. however, that was when all they thought would happen were the bombs being dropped on cities and military installations all at a time when the understanding of EMP was very incomplete. what happens when every circuit in the servers and routers is fused?
good luck to all,
trey |
