I agree that the road won't be smooth, and some scary market corrections would not surprise me. I believe direct comparisons to the 20's are in error partly because the depth of the economy is so much greater now. We don't just have Autos, Railroads, and Oil, All of it was guns and butter stuff. Today, we have pharmaceuticals, technology, retail, as well as construction, railroads, autos, and oil. The wealth is not based on the allocation of scarce natural resources, but based on the creation of new ideas, which are limitless. Many of these sectors undergo their own individual bear market while other sectors are not, giving a little more stability to the market. And the product life cycles within the technology sector are so quick, that that sector is undergoing a constant transformation and growth curve.
Look at the miraculous products we have now that didn't even exist 10 years ago, and are now ubiquitous. Hand held digital cell phones, broadband web access, 4GL business software, 700 mhz processors, safe e-commerce.
I'll agree that nuclear war would put a damper on the economy. But in the event of nuclear war, wealth building will become less of a priority (with me at least!). But that's a stretch, and that's good news if nuclear war is the only thing that will derail this electronic revolution in the long term. |
