To dismiss lessons learned in the past, and think the present is somehow different, is what you seem to be alluding to. I can't jump into your future, without looking where I leap. I certainly did not say that technology does not push the market up. I believe I alluded to quite the opposite. But you have advanced our discussion, so I'll add some points.
Many great visions of the future have been dashed because the world was not ready for them yet. Living in North America (I assume), you can have a very distorted view of where the rest of the world is, in their ability and want to, adopt the new technology.
If earnings don't improve in the internet, and quickly, I think that sector could start sliding down and stay there for a decade. Many countries will not let an American internet concept, into their countries. They will demand national content and control. Many international competitors will jump in,...many will be subsidized by their respective governments. That is a lesson of the past. That could put a cap on the future profits of many North American high tech companies.
Must admit, my main point in my 1920's reference, was that the Fed was deemed to be able to save the market from collapse, and technological advancements of that time were the engine of that bull market as well. Those two parallels apply to the present market as well. So the radio and the airplane have been replaced by advanced computer technology, and the internet. You assert it's different now. I remain on the fence, but never the less, mainly invested in this market,...just not fully invested in the internet. Another lesson from this time. Some people had to wait 30 years for their stocks to break even. Like RCA. |
