I suppose the best way to analyze/rationalize today's trading is that a) most of the market is still ignoring commodities and b) that part of the market which is not ignoring commodities is investing in INCO, not start ups like CMR.
Since no one took the bait and redid the numbers, I did, so here goes, and maybe this will stouten (is that a word?) the hearts of any remaining bulls.
Based on Ni at 3.34, Cu at .75, Co at 19 and Pt and Pd each at 350, I get US $ 129.4 for contained ore value at Maskwa, per long ton (tonne). Based on "feasibility study being conducted," KLM mining has adjusted the "indicated resource" to 2,929,111 tons. So if these are long tonnes, that is a $490 mil US orebody (roughly 450 mil if short tons).
If mine life is ten years and cash flow is 48 mil US and there are 48 mil shares, then projected cash flow is 1$ US per share or 1.50 CDN. If intermediate to senior producers trade at 10 x cash flow, then Maskwa, with no further increase in reserves, is worth $15/share. This includes no value for Werner, Cobatec, or BINCO.
I can understand why financing would have been impossible 9 months ago, and can understand some lag time in turnaround of market perceptions.
It would seem though with 1 "indicated resource" of 400-500 mil, and Werner worth what $80 mil (US), that financing of 10-15 mil CDN (6-10 mil US) would be simple.
Others thoughts? |
