Interestingly, according to Bloomberg, Ni for 3 month delivery (12/99) is trading for $700 more than Ni for 15 month delivery (12/00). According to Bloomberg, in May 99, nearby Ni traded at a discount.
The current nearby premium is felt to reflect current Ni deficit, combined with producers hedging their bets and selling forward in anticipation of increased supply by Anaconda within 15 months.
Interesting, and here's a thought that will finally convince Dave that I have lost whatever semblance of sanity being long CMR has left me.
What if Anaconda doesn't come through, and/or what if civil disruption in Indonesia spreads and/or Russian production plummets and major producers [Inco, Falco, Norilsk, WMC, Glencore/Anaconda] have to cover their forward sold positions?
It sure would be sweet for us if Ted were close to Ni production by Q4, 2000. |
