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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 683.47

+0.6%

Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (25049)	9/7/1999 7:06:00 PM
From: Ken98	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Heinz, I agree with you statements about the dollar and would add that I do not understand why everyone is focusing on the PPI/CPI and ignoring the trade deficit numbers. When the effects of higher oil prices and record demand for luxury import cars are factored in the trade deficit number should be off the scales. The subsequent effect on the dollar will be, to say the least, not very pretty. I guess the PPI/CPI are focused on because they are the most easily manipulated (seasonal and productivity "adjustments", etc.) and after announcing the properly manipulated number you can jam the NDX 5% or so. My guess is that the current numbers will be "in line with forecasts" and the adjustments to the last month's figures will be "revised up". The sound bite "in line" number will again cause another melt-up, ignoring the revisions to the previous month's "in-line" numbers that caused the previous month's melt-up. Kind of like Bill Murray in Ground Hog Day isn't it? Regards, Ken.

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