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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum

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To: Bosco who wrote (9241)9/7/1999 9:01:00 PM
From: Z268  Read Replies (2) of 9980
 
Hi Bosco and all,

The question of East Timor is a complex issue for Indonesia, with multiple facets.

Historically, much of this tragedy could have been averted if Portugal had lived up to its [colonial] responsibilities,and the UN had stood up to Indonesia. But then again, Portugal has never had a good record of bringing its former colonies to peaceful independence, unlike the British, who at least leave behind a well established civil and judicial legacy.

The Australians were almost indecent in their haste to recognize the Indonesian annexation of East Timor, in order to appease its northern neighbor, and their current haste to lead a peacekeeping force smack of a long simmering guilty conscience.

That said, the ancient Javanese Wayang theatre is being played out in East Timor, with another appalling lost of East Timorese lives (after the 250,000 innocent lives to date)imminent. IMHO, there is a real danger of an Army-led coup d'etat in Jakarta on the back of nationalistic pride over East Timor- a sentiment that should not be underestimated and will no doubt be leveraged to the full by ambitious generals in Jakarta. Todays TV pictures of rioting demonstrators in Jakarta battling police while carrying the National "Merah Putih" flag will arouse strong nationalistic feelings.

If this happens, the Balkanization of Indonesia will be well under way, as the current political leaders and vested interests will not accept another military regime like their predecessors did in 1965.

The article posted by DMA on the Indonesian Army (TNI) contains many valid points about the psychology of those in command of the military. The ideology of "dwi-fungsi", or "dual function [of law and order and of safeguarding the political process]" of the military is very much alive among the military elite. Theirs is the right to govern, and to provide for their constituents, the common soldier - armies feed themselves by engaging in commercial ventures, like the PLA as in the article posted by DMA.

So where is Habibie in the midst of all this? Is he one of the "dalang" - puppeteers, or is he simply one of the "wayang" - puppets? I leave that conclusion to my learned friends on the board.

I have been reading the history of the crusades - in large scale human endeavors motivated by political and economic greed, innocent lives have always been a cheap commodity.

Best,
Steve Yeo
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