I'd agree that ORCL isn't too big to be bought, but I can't imagine
why anyone would do it. First, can anyone point to a case where buying
a software company actually worked? I can't think of a case offhand,
and I can think of lots of cases where it was a disaster. IBM has a
database, and they make a lot of money on it, so what would they want
with another one that was incompatible? These takeover rumors belong
on the IFMX thread, where lots of stockholders have lost hope that
the company can thrive and want someone to buy them out...
As to why the stock would move like this, I think that there is a
simple explanation. Almost everyone thinks that ORCL is singularly
well positioned for the long term (long term for a software company,
at least) and the thing that is holding the stock price down are
worries about execution. Every good quarter relieves those worries
a bit and the stock goes up. If people really were relaxed about ORCL
being able to execute on their plan, I think that this stock would be
in the 70's (not that I think that it would make sense, but I've given
up trying to price anything that is internet related).
I just wish I could get plugged in enough to get better rumors. I have
no idea what the last quarter really looked like, but I guess it must
be okay. I do believe that if ORCL can realize their plans, the
company could double it's price within 4 years and maintain that rate
of growth even beyond. |
