In an odd way, digital tv has replaced the old standards, but not in the way they thought - my eyes are filled by this digital screen I'm watching right now. It's my news source and all sorts. That just shows how wrong they were; not only did digital tv not take over, tv of any broadcast type will be lucky to survive at all!
But that doesn't mean 3G won't happen and fast.
You aren't quite right to say the cost issue hasn't been addressed. Yes it has. Quite some time ago I figured that paying by bits with high prices for peak times and really cheap for quiet times would see 3G a very economic system [but not for watching streaming video like a couch potato].
Airtouch has realized they'll have to drop the per minute business and go with data flows and peak pricing.
Wireline Web is building the base for WWeb. Those wired users will be primed to switch when functionality and cost meet their expectations.
The USA has inhibited cellphone use by their absurd 'called party pays' policy. They might do something equally stupid to stop the adoption of 3G. I doubt it but you never know. Maybe Congress will put a per minute toll gate on the Web and WWeb, require all packets to be filtered through the NSA and FBI and any encrypted stuff be decrypted.
Given their wealth, even with fragmented standards, you'd think the USA would be the biggest user of cellphones.
The CDMA trend is Qualcomm's friend. Qualcomm will make ASICs, royalties, handsets/devices, including Globalstar.
There are about 26 CDMA subscriber licensees. Shared equally, they get only 4% CDMA market share each! Tough to increase that by 1% let alone in the overall cellphone market. The whole handset business is going to be extremely competitive [well, it already is but that will increase].
So if you consider the total cellphone market of all types, there are heaps of handset makers who will be well under 3% market share since Nokia, Motorola, Ericy have such huge shares as a result of analogue, GSM and TDMA handsets.
I'm not sure what you thought I'd say, but I guess it was that Qualcomm would do okay? I suppose their CDMA handset market share should drop over the next year to well under 10%. I'd be pleasantly surprised if it doesn't. That means Q! overall cellphone market share will be even lower, at under 4%. That does sound low, but whatever it is, it will still be a big increase in sales over this year.
I agree with you that the boring details will be vital to profit in the end. Qualcomm will need to be highly competitive in the prosaic as well as the innovative to be successful. Resting on laurels is fatal.
Sure, having a range of products is good, leveraging on brand image, offices, staff, accounting costs and so on is good. But focus can be even better. Does Ferrari make SUV's? Michael Jordan tried baseball but returned to basketball. Rolls Royce did not make a people's car.
2004 will see well over 10m 3G subscribers. You are wrong; there are guarantees. I am offering a double your money back guarantee. Send Q to my email address!
Maurice |
