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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 659.00

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Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (25123)	9/8/1999 9:47:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) of 99985

Dennis, >>>> she has been right all along! And much better than the technicians. <<<<< The only problem with that comment is will she be able to time the major one, now that would impress me. Even if she doesnt then it doesnt matter since she has been right for the long term holders for a long time. Techinicians are for the shorter-term, not for the long term holders. Thats my feeling based on mathematics. As I have stated, with the long-term outlook the chance use technical analysis is no better than 62%, at best. That is based on "OPEN ENVIRONMENT" studies. As one reduces the time-frame, the OPEN ENVIRONMENT becomes more closed and the probability increases. So my conclusion is that TA is no better than Fundamentals for long-term outlook. Sure we have had some great BEAR calls by some TA analylists, but how consistent are they. However, the consistancy increases as the time fram is reduced, as the environment becomes more closed. seeya

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