Bob,
AML was hit with all the other apartment REITs last October and again in March. It rebounded 20% and has only given back 10% slowly over the last 3 months. It has had strong fundamental FFO growth when many apartment REITs have slowed to a crawl or dropped (MAA, AEC, UDR, WDN) It is trading at an attractive 8 x FFO estimated for 1999. In this negative REIT environment, it may well retest 20 and even 19, but for a long term investor, it was trading in the same range 2-1/2 to 3 years ago, but has much stronger FFO since then. Thus, it is a good buying opportunity.
Gregor,
EQY made a huge run for some reason in the last 3 months. It actually has been a great stock to buy 2-6 weeks before the dividend except for the March quarter. I am very suspicious this quarter since it has traced a nearly perfect head and shoulders top in just 3 months. I don't usually pay attention to such technical patterns short term with REITs, but with so much negative sentiment... Many REITs get hit hard right after the dividend, so it pays to sell them if you make 2-3% or more right before the ex-dividend date. EQY and AML are ones that go down right after the dividend usually.
UHT is another REIT that is going ex-dividend next week like EQY that is trading near it's low. On the other hand, it's risky since it is in health care.
note: HCP, HR, NHP were rated buys today, and OHI market perform. Some bottom fishing is starting in the health care REITS
Richard |
