Mile,
I got back from some meetings earlier than expected, so I decided to expand on the "some are fur it, some are agin' it" comment with a tome for you.
It seems to me that we're in a pitched battle right now between the "glass-half-full, glass-half-empty" folks (more so than I remember ever seeing in the last year and a half).
I characterize the "glass-half-empty" personality as someone who sees large problems as insurmountable and avows that we have to find an easier solution that doesn't take as much energy to overcome. This can range from the rabid ("Rambus is having yield problems, therefore it's doomed", which is silly) to the reasonably rational ("DDR is the best solution for servers right now because ... [whatever the reason, but probably is true]). The glass-half-empty personality looks for shorter, baby-step, evolutionary solutions since it takes too much energy to make revolutionary changes.
The "glass-half-full" personality tends to look at the objective in the distance, and if they have to roll over some brick walls to get there, they'll do it. It, too, can range from the rabid ("Intel can do no wrong", which is silly) to the rational ("RDRAM will begin penetration at the high-end systems, then as yields improve move down ..."). I consider Intel, Dell, Samsung, and Sony to be "glass-half-full" companies and, not coincidentally, each of them is a market leader in their segment. They got there by taking the long view (The Vision) and figuring out how to get there.
Glass-half-full people, as they focus on the long view, have the constant problem of having the half-glass-empty folks beside them every step of the way telling them how high the hills are and that we need to back up or go sideways. But folks with a true vision just roll right over the hills. Patton would never have won the ground he won if he worried about the effort required to crest every little hill or ford every little stream. Each step had to be taken, and, by God, it would be.
Unfortunately, as investors, we're not the people responsible for cresting the hills -- we have to rely on the folks at Rambus, Dell, Compaq, Intel, Samsung, et. al. to get us over the top. I believe we've already seen many hills crested to get to the point where we are now, 19 days from the release of Camino, with known system configurations already accidentally announced. I believe we have "hints" of the cresting of other hills -- the consortium focused on bringing down the Rambus cost, the impending implementation of RDRAM on .19 micron processes from Samsung, Rambus's announcement of their ChipKill technology, and so on. Thus, we already have hints that they will get the cost down, that Samsung will move RDRAM down the die size curve, and that Rambus is not going to give up the server segment.
[Incidentally, there was a prime example of "half-full, half-empty" thinking this morning. To me, Samsung's movement of RDRAM to the .19 micron process is a great step in getting to the .18 micron process, and then to the .13 micron process, et cetera. To someone else this morning, it was an indication of failure and that the costs of RDRAM would stay higher.]
So far, I don't see any indication that Intel, Dell, Compaq, Sony, or Samsung have taken their eyes off the objective in the distance. If they do, then I'll worry. In the meantime, they'll continue to roll over obstructions as any revolutionary technology must do. And we will have to rely on them to do so.
And we'll have the half-empty folks walking along beside us most of the way.
Okay, now back to work. Any thoughts?
Have a great day!
Dave
p.s. An additional thought. Not every hill has to be crested immediately. For example, if RDRAM is not the best solution for servers right now [note: I'm not saying that it is or isn't, just using a hypothetical] due to capacity problems (not production, but the maximum amount of memory allowed in the system), then I have no problem if Intel were to say that they were going to set that problem aside momentarily while the get the PC business going, then they'll get it fixed with Rambus. Again, I'm looking for The Vision that says "We are not giving up on the issue, just setting it aside for a short time. Then we'll fix it." I want to see The Vision from the visionary companies like Intel, Dell, and Samsung that continues to say that RDRAM is that future of DRAM for them. And so far we have it, and more. |
