Sepracor-Looks very promising Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising

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To: Biomaven who wrote (3674)	9/8/1999 2:35:00 PM
From: David Howe	Read Replies (2) of 10280

<< That's higher than the company seems to be projecting >> In this case, I feel that SEPR is offering conservative guidance. They may have learned not to let expectations get too high. At the current growth rate, Allegra should easily be a $1 billion seller by 2001. US and xUS sales are about 2/3 by 1/3. It's hard for me to fathom a combined royalty that works out to less than 4%. I'll stick with a minimum of $40 million in revenue starting in 2001. Regarding generics, this will become an issue for a number of the drugs in the pipeline down the road. To maintain strong earnings growth beyond 2004, SEPR may need to adjust their business model. All they really need is for one member of the pipeline to be a blockbuster (ie. Meridia ICE) and for them to take it to market on their own. That would change the story dramatically. A $2 Billion Drug with a net margin of around 25% would be the equivalent of around $12 per share in earnings all by itself. Maybe that's a pipe dream, but it's one of the upside surprises that is possible. And the stock continues to lag. Dave

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