Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: paul feldman who wrote (50626)	9/8/1999 4:12:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

FGI/HLX... ramblings... Guys; I would just think that HLX sold off with the sector today.I have no trading position in it.. no percentage to anyone shorting it etc.. My comments are not negative towards HLX, or FGI as companies, or their management. At the end here; I actually liked HLX better than FGI because of their diversity; and their valuation - but, both companies had needs to fill - and it was good for both companies. FGI has sterling management, they are ''the yard of choice'' and they will probably grow market share vs the competition - but, the pie is shrinking - that's the problem. I was not the one who said that the Offshore Rig Construction Boom was a one time blip on the chart - it's been out there a while... FGI's challenge will be to move into strong repair, refurb & upgrade work - into FPSO's and to integrate HLX and to not let any market share slip away in shipbuilding... the shipbuilding side may surprise in light of Global & Asian expansion. HLX & HMAR had nice upsides in Asia before the downturn here... Personally; I think FGI is in a lagging subsector - no fault of their own. I do not think they have any chance of being a $35-$0 stock again; run the numbers on where their backlog needs to be to do so.... Man, there would need to be some serious orders real soon - to support those levels anytime in the future. Someone told me recently; and I just recently gave up carrying the Holy Grail on FGI - that when they bottom; and they look to be there... that they become a slower growth - but, high quality company. This is probably a company that earns its way back to the high teens over 18 mos. or so... no return to the heady days anytime soon - unless they pull miracles out of their hat - to add to the backlogs. Who is going to build a coupld hundred million dollar offshore rig here ? in the next 12 mos. even ? How long from time of order - to receipt of cash ? Not knocking FGI - super company; just musing sadly about how the once Golden Boy of the sector is now just a utility infielder... PGO is one to watch on their FPSO success - FPSO's could be the longterm savior for FGI. watch BWG as well; allways wondered about a BWG-FGI merger...? I'm open for the upside story on FGI, but how does the backlog ever get there with repairs & upgrades ? God, they need $100M+ orders one, after another here... Looks like the Big Dogs FGI profile is going to be very, very interesting here.... the future upside story could be 75% from the HLX side however... curious as to if JL would admit that...(VBG)If it is; he just made a brilliant coup - because he got HLX cheap imho...

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