MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 674.96

+0.9%

Nov 25 4:00 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (25270)	9/8/1999 4:41:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 99985

i agree. the only exception i take is that today can not be compared to '29. it can be compared, there are in fact many parallels. today is different insofar as a 30's style depression can probably be avoided, but at the very least i would expect a downturn in the stock market exceeding 30% and lasting a bit longer than your garden-variety correction to lead to a recession. whether the market can or can not crash is open to debate imo. don't forget that a record amount of households as well as foreign investors are in the market and all it takes is a few weeks of irrational panic. however, i agree that crashes are so rare as to scarcely merit consideration - they are exceptional, once-every-three-generations occurrences and impossible to predict. it is also an open question whether the Fed's attempts to 'shake the tree' as you put it will yield any appreciable results. frankly, i doubt it. the market seems to be daring the Fed to do something about the asset bubble, secretly convinced that it will chicken out. as far as i can tell this assessment of the Fed is cynical but 100% correct. hb hb

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next